I have to thank Nassim Nicholas Taleb for writing one of the best business books I’ve read in a long time—The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. It has really changed the way I think about start-ups, success, failure, and the ubiquitous and annoying bell curve. Let me explain. Taleb’s core thesis is that the inventions, companies, and events that have the biggest impact on society, either positively or negatively, are not predictable. You can’t see them coming because there are no obvious signs announcing their arrival. In other words, you can’t plan for Black Swans (BS). You can’t, for example, come up with a business concept and an ingenious strategy to create the next Google (a Black Swan business). Even the founders of Google didn’t know when they started what impact their little search engine would have. After all, there were plenty of other search engines out there. Why did the funky, plain toast version offered by Google hit the mark? The truth is: BS technologies, inventions, and businesses—those that change the world—are rare events that hit us when we’re not looking and when we least expect them.

Black Swan businesses don’t come out of carefully crafted business plans and piles of spreadsheets forecasting billion dollar revenues. If you can describe a path that led to a BS, then it’s not a BS; it is probably right in the middle of the bell curve with all the other average business ideas. It’s as simple as that. And, if you’re looking for a formula for BS creation, it doesn’t exist. So how do you increase your chances of creating that very rare bird, that business that flies off the charts? If I say that your best shot is at the intersection of experimentation, chaos, randomness, disconfirmation, and dumb luck, would you believe me?    I have been involved in entrepreneurial endeavors for more than 20 years and I’m firmly convinced it’s true. To have a shot at creating something with the impact of Google, Amgen, or the Harry Potter empire, you have to put aside intense planning and focus on experimentation—on trial and error. Doing that leaves you open to surprises, discoveries, and Eureka moments. You’re not tied to a strategy that you spend days conceiving only to then be anchored to that strategy in such a way that you miss opportunities that might take you on a more exciting path. If your first business idea doesn’t work (or even if it does), start another and another. The more you experiment, the more chances you’ll have to ultimately hit on something that has real impact.