A while back Peter blogged about the importance of  focus,  specifically, focusing on what your business does well.and not getting pulled in a lot of different directions.  I agree with that, and especially if you're a rocket scientist, brain surgeon, or race car driver; you definitely need to focus or you're in big trouble.  But if you're facing the unknown--uncertainty--the LAST thing you want to do is focus.  Why? Because as Yogi Berra once said, "The future ain't what it used to be." And it's true. The world today is way too complex to be predicted with any reasonable degree of accuracy.

No one faces more uncertainty than entrepreneurs as they get ready to start their business or launch a new product.  But, I've found that if you follow a plan of disciplined experimentation, you can reduce some of that uncertainty (and this plan works for things other than start-ups too).  Here's how it works. 

You're starting with what you think is a need in the market: customers want affordable premium confections in single-serving multipacks.

1. Determine if you have a right to your opinion: how do you actually know that people might want these single-serve versions?  What could you do to find out?
2. What could possibly kill this idea?  Besides the fact that people may not want it, what if it costs to much to make them and people won't pay the price?
3. What's the biggest upside to this opportunity?  maybe you don't lose customers who are trying to stay away from sweets because they can now have controlled portions.
4. Design your first experiment:  talk to some potential customers and find out if this will meet their needs
5. If the first experiment works, design a second:  maybe you produce a limited quantity to test in the market

Then you continue to design small experiments that will answer a lot of questions before you have to invest too much money.  After all, that's the way investors do it--invest in stages.  Actually, this very experiment I described was carried out by Chuao Chocolatier®, the first Venezuelan Chocolatier based in the U.S., and the positive feedback they got from customers encouraged them to develop an entire line of these indiviualized treats.  They found a way to deal with uncertainty by conducting affordable little experiments until they were confident enough to go for it.  Give it a try and let me know how it goes.  And while you're at it, try those chocolates--but just one!